I’m looking forward to the Oscars this year, I’ve seen 99% of all the nominees in all categories and have formed some definite opinions (guesses?) about who the 2017 winners will be in all categories. I’ve had pretty good success in the past with the major categories, last year the only misfire was picking Tom Hardy (The Revenant) over the winner Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies) as Best Supporting Actor. lt’s when I get to the Documentary Feature, Documentary Short, Live Action Short, Animation Short, categories that I get too smart for the room. This year the toughest categories are Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor. I look for very big night for “La La Land”, 10 wins out of 14 nominations, although last year “The Revenant only took home 3 out of 12 nominations, oh oh. Anyway, here we go!
BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
Andrew Garfield HACKSAW RIDGE
Ryan Gosling LA LA LAND
Viggo Mortensen CAPTAIN FANTASTIC
Denzel Washington FENCES
This has become the one of the toughest races to call. Casey Affleck was so affecting in his portrayal of pain dealing with a family tragedy through escape into solitude, but Denzel Washington’s powerful portrayal of a flawed family patriarch has made him a contender with the momentum right now.
Should win: Denzel dWashington
Isabelle Huppert ELLE
Ruth Negga LOVING
Emma Stone LA LA LAND
Natalie Portman JACKIE
Meryl Streep FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS
Great performances all, but Emma Stone was so amazing in her “audition” scenes: she can porrtay more emotion with just her face and eyes than any actor I’ve seen this year.
Will Win: Emma Stone
Should Win: Emma Stone
Mahershala Ali MOONLIGHT
Jeff Bridges HELL OR HIGH WATER
Lucas Hedges MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
Dev Patel LION
Michael Shannon NOCTURNAL ANIMALS
I loved Jeff Bridges as the crusty Texas Ranger, and Lucas Hedges was a terrific newcomer, but Mahershala Ali was magnetic s the drug dealer with a heart of gold. His performance here and his SAG Awards acceptance speech about inclusion will carry the day for the voters.
Will Win: Mahershala Ali
Should Win: Mahershala Ali
Viola Davis FENCES
Naomie Harris MOONLIGHT
Nicole Kidman LION
Octavia Spencer HIDDEN FIGURES
Michelle Williams MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
This race is full of wonderful performances but Viola Davis’ nomination here, instead of in the Best Actress category, makes this the surest pick of the ceremony.\
Will Win: Viola Davis
Should Win: Viola Davis
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
This one is an easy call: a picture about Hollywood, great acting , great music, great cinematography, etc., it’s “La La Land” all the way.
Will Win: La La Land
Should Win: La La Land
Denis Villeneuve ARRIVAL
Mel Gibson HACKSAW RIDGE
Damien Chazelle LA LA LAND
Kenneth Lonergan MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
Barry Jenkins MOONLIGHT
Damien Chazelle has crafted a Hollywood musical masterpiece and will take the big prize.
Will win: Damien Chazelle
Should Win: Damien Chazelle
COSTUME DESIGN
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
Normally this one goes to the best use of period attire and “Florence” and “Fantastic Beasts” performed that function in spades, but I’m going with Mary Zophries of La La Land, the Coen Brothers’ favorite costumer, mostly because she made me look like a Detective in “A Serious Man”.
Will Win: Mary Zophries
Should win: Mary Zophries
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad
I liked “A Man Called Ove”, but in this category, go where the money was: “Star Trek Beyond”.
Will Win: Star Trek Beyond
Should Win: Star Trek Beyond
ANIMATED FEATURE
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
This is a race between “Kubo” and “Zootopia”, and the anti-prejudice sentiment of “Zootopia” will resonate with the voters, not to mention it’s Billion-dollar box office.
Will Win: Zootopia
Should Win: Zootopia
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Land of Mine, Denmark
A Man Called Ove, Sweden
The Salesman, Iran
Tanna, Australia
Toni Erdmann, Germany
“A Man Called Ove” was a real crowd pleaser, and Iran’s Asghar Farhadi has won this award before for “A Separation”, but the politics surrounding his boycott of the ceremony to protest the anti-immigration executive order this year, not to mention Farhadi’s skill as a story teller will win the voters.
Will Win: The Salesman.
Should Win: A Man Called Ove
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th
“O.J.: Made in America” is more affecting to me than the TV drama “American Horror Story: The People v. O. J. Simpson” on FX, Even though I saw the “OJ: Made in America” Documentary on serialized on ESPN. The strong contender here would be “I Am Not Your Negro”, using the words of the late author James Baldwin to tackle racism in America. This is a must see documentary, given the times we are in.
Will Win: O.J.: Made in America
Should Win: I Am Not Your Negro
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
4.1 Miles
Extremis
Joe’s Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets
Interesting category: The crowd pleaser “Joe’s Violin” is a wonderful story of a Holocaust surviver, but the race here is with: “Watani: My Homeland”, which puts a human face on the Syrian immigrant experience; “4.1 Miles”, a heart breaking look at the stranded immigrants at sea rescue story; and “The White Helmets”, a story of the true heroes of the siege of Aleppo.
Will Win: The White Helmets
Should Win: Joe’s Violin
LIVE ACTION SHORT
Ennemis Interieurs
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode
Two more powerful immigrant stories here will dominate the votes over some really charming stories: “La Femme et la TGV”, the story of a lonely widow played by Jane Birkin, yes, that “Birkin Bag” Birkin; “Sing” about schoolyard inclusion; and “Timecode”, an unusual love story between two lonely security guards. It’s a tossup between “Ennemis Interieurs” (the Enemy Within), a chilling look at interrogation techniques, and “Silent Nights”, a multilayered love story between an African immigrant and a Danish shelter worker.
Will Win: Ennemis Intrieurs
Should Win: Silent Nights
ANIMATED SHORT
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper
Peter Piper puts predictive premonition promoting Pixar Power: “Piper”
Will Win: Piper
Should Win: Piper
ORIGINAL SCORE
Jackie, Micachu
La La Land, Justin Hurwitz
Lion, Dustin O’Halloran, Hauschka
Moonlight, Nicholas Britell
Passengers, Thomas Newman
I Had the chance to work with Justin Hurwitz on “A Prairie Home Companion with Chris Thile” in Pasadena this year. Great guy, great talent!
Will Win: Justin Hurwitz
Should Win: Justin Hurwit
ORIGINAL SONG
“Audition” LA LA LAND
“Can’t Stop the Feeling!” TROLLS
“City of Stars” LA LA LAND
“The Empty Chair” JIM: THE JAMES FOLEY STORY
“How Far I’ll Go” MOANA
La La Land rules this year though vote splitting between its two nominations could hurt, but “City of Stars” is a total ear-worm.
Will Win: City of Stars
Should Win: City of Stars
SOUND EDITING
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully
This one goes to the big action films most of the time so I think Mel Gibson’s big comeback war film “Hacksaw Ridge” will take it.
Will Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Should Win: Arrival
SOUND MIXING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours
As a musician, Damien Chazelle knows about mixing sound and has a great crew although, truth be told, I couldn’t hear the lyrics of the opening number (“Another Day of Sun”) until my second viewing.
Will Win: La La Land
Should Win: La La Land
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women
I think Kenneth Lonergan’s “Manchester by the Sea” will triumph over tough competition from “Hell or High Water” , “La La Land”, and “20th Century Woman” (Annette Bening has never been better). By the way, I hated the “tail end” of “The Lobster”.
Will Win: Manchester by the Sea
Should Win: Manchester by the Sea
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight
I think “Moonlight” will get some love from the voters here to make up for other big category losses.
Will Win: Moonlight
Should Win: Moonlight
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence
This is La La Land’s to lose, for me it’s a lock.
Will Win: La La Land
Should Win: La La Land
FILM EDITING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land Moonlight
Will Win: for La La Land.
Should Win: La La Land
VISUAL EFFECTS
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
“The Jungle Book is one of those amazing Live Action CGI extravaganzas that has you saying, “how in earth do they do that”.
Will Win: The Jungle Book
Should Win: The Jungle Book.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers
“Fantastic Beasts” did a spectacular job of recreating 1920’s New York City, but Damien Chazelle’s love letter to the City of Angels will take the prize.
Will Win: La La Land
Should Win: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Recent Comments